Weekly Market Snapshot – August 3, 2020

Created by: Sam Tenney

GDP growth came in at an annualized -32.9% reduction in GDP growth. This is the largest single quarterly drop in GDP in recorded data. ¹
As of Friday, July 31st, Fitch Ratings has updated the US sovereign debt outlook to negative. While US debt still remains AAA rated at Fitch and Moody’s, as of August 2011 US debt was downgraded to AA+ by Standard and Poor’s. ²
As of Friday, July 31st, the federal moratorium on evictions has expired. Currently, two out of five tenants in America are in danger of being served eviction notices, which could possibly drive real estate prices lower as selling increases in the future. ³

SOURCES

1. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/8967144…

2. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-revises-united-st…

3. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/31/economist-a-surge-in-evictions-could…

Please note by using any of the links provided for your convenience, you will be leaving Fidelis Wealth Advisors website. The hyperlinks are to websites and servers maintained by third parties. We do not control, evaluate, endorse, or guarantee content found in those sites. Your use of such sites is at your own risk.

This blog is general communication being provided for informational purposes only. This information is in no way a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. It is educational in nature and not to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product or investment strategy. This does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision. Any investment or investment strategy mentioned may not be suitable for all investors or in their best interest. Statistical information, quotes, charts, references to articles or any other quoted statement or statements regarding market or other financial information is obtained from sources which we believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. All rights are reserved. No part of this blog including text, graphics, et al, may be reproduced or copied in any format, electronic, print, et al, without written consent from Fidelis Wealth Advisors, LLC. Fidelis Wealth Advisors does not provide legal or tax advice. Please be advised to consult with your investment advisor, attorney or tax professional before making any investment decisions.

Weekly Market Snapshot – July 27th, 2020

Created by: Sam Tenney

June Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data came in at 52.6 on the index. While this is somewhat of a rebound in manufacturing data, given a PMI of 50 means no growth has occurred, losses on the index from the prior three months mean overall manufacturing activity in the US is still very depressed.¹
The Dollar hit a two year low as of Monday, July 27th in global currency exchange markets, slipping 0.6%. Future expectations of more economic stimulus due to the increasing severity of Covid-19 could be to blame, as well as the previous rounds of record setting stimulus passed by Congress already.²
Gold has reached new all-time highs of $1,939.20 as of Monday, July 27th. Previous price records were set in 2011 after large rounds of federal stimulus, this is likely market reaction based on assumptions of more global government stimulus. ³

SOURCES

1. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pmi-at-52-6-june-2020-manufactu…

2. ft.com/content/9d9fa97c-154f-46fb-affd-51f45a0de08a

3. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-27/gold-s-stunning-surge…

Weekly Market Snapshot – July 20th, 2020

Created by: Sam Tenney

Many US Corporations are beginning to set longer term strategies in place to deal with the economic disruptions caused by Covid-19. “We cannot defy gravity and continue with the business model we had before the pandemic” said Pret-a-Manger US subsidiary CEO Pano Christou.¹
The Federal Reserve has opened their $2.2 trillion “Mainstreet lending program” to non-profit groups with 10 employees or more. This includes non-profits such as hospitals and universities.²
During the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, board members voiced concerns about the strength of the US economic recovery if Covid-19 cases continue to rise. ³

SOURCES

1. https://archive.vn/Jcggq

2. https://www.ft.com/content/3b7671ab-f53b-47b5-8f2b-de25842838f6

3. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20200610.htm

Weekly Market Snapshot – July 13th, 2020

Created by: Sam Tenney

Non-farm payrolls rose 4.8 million in June, bringing the overall unemployment rate down to 11.1% ¹
Many apparel retailers have found excess inventory from Covid lockdowns hard to unload in the current environment, posing a challenge to many. “Nobody wants to get 10 cents on the cost dollar … When I tell them [retailers] the price, they go back to the drawing board. They say, ‘that’s terrible’.”²
Possible data errors in the governments tracking of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), may be skewing information on the program’s effectiveness. Although the maximum PPP loan for a one-person enterprise is $20,833, more than 75,000 loans listing one job retained have higher amounts — including 154 showing $1 million or more.³

SOURCES

1. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/jobs-report-june-2020.html

2. https://www.ft.com/content/d5458e0f-4bc3-42b9-aed0-6c9b62c27cf6

3. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-13/ppp-data-errors-raise…

Weekly Market Snapshot – July 6th, 2020

Created by: Sam Tenney

According to a Yelp business review, 41% of small businesses listed on Yelp will be permanently closed after re-opening.¹
The “Coronavirus housing hardship index” places Nevada as the most impacted state from the virus shutdowns, after the states mortgage delinquency rate rose to 10% and the unemployment numbers barely rebounded to 25%.²
The US Treasury has taken a 30% stake in military trucking contractor YRC Worldwide in exchange for a $700 million loan. While usually the treasury does not require equity stakes in companies, stake was taken in this company to protect the American public from losses.³

SOURCES

1. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/41-of-businesses-listed-on-yelp-have-c…

2. https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/housing-hardship-index/

3. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/01/treasury-loan-yrc-wor…

Weekly Market Snapshot – June 29th, 2020

Created by: Sam Tenney

In May, 26.7% of personal income came from transfer payments such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, VA benefits, and unemployment insurance. This is up from 17% pre-Covid, and up from 6% in 1960. Wages & Salaries are ~44% of total income, down from 65% in 1960.¹
As of Friday June 26th, 13 companies have filed for Chapter 11 restructuring bankruptcy for the week, among them GNC corporation and Chuck-e-Cheese parent company CEC entertainment. This is the highest number of weekly claims since 2009.²
US Durable goods orders rebound 15.8% in May, driven by automotive orders and a decline in cancellations for Boeing.³
The Bureau of Economic Analysis has released data suggesting that the $600 extra in unemployment insurance provided by Congress for Covid-19 directly contributes to 3.7% in GDP growth and 5.1 million jobs, the economic impact of these payments has been significant and it remains to be seen if congress will extend the deadline._⁴

SOURCES

1. https://twitter.com/EPBResearch/status/1277659898491305985/photo/1

2. https://www.lohud.com/story/money/business/2020/06/25/gnc-chuck-e-cheese…

3. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-durable-goods-orders-rebound-158-in…

4. https://www.epi.org/blog/cutting-off-the-600-boost-to-unemployment-benef…

The Aspen Effect and Ranch Hand Leadership programs

At Fidelis Wealth Advisors we strive to support our local community, including our youth.

In 2020 Sam joined the Board of Directors for The Aspen Effect, in which one of their programs is The Ranch Hand Leadership Academy. This is a local program that provides Colorado youth with self-confidence as well as helping them to develop life skills (including manual labor working on a horse ranch). Each summer the program hires a group of kids to groom miles of trails in the Bell Mountain Ranch community. Through this experience, the youth learn to work as a team, how to lead, how to set goals, how to work through conflict and several other essential life skills. At the end of the summer program, one person will be voted on by their peers and will receive the John Bell Youth Leadership award. Through The Aspen Effect, “youth can work hard while having fun and turn their skills into practical education to assist them later in life and help them navigate their future” (theaspeneffect.org)

Fidelis Wealth Advisors is pleased to announce a recent donation to this rewarding program that will help teach respect, integrity, and good work ethics. The Aspen Effect and Ranch Hand Leadership are dedicated to increasing the resiliency of the youth in Colorado and Fidelis Wealth Advisors values our youth and we are glad to be investing in our communities future.

Tim Penrod – A Life Impacted from CFSS Admin on Vimeo.

Weekly Market Snapshot – June 22nd, 2020

Created by: Sam Tenney

According to a third-party survey 30% of American households missed their house payment in June. This is down only slightly from 31% who missed their payments in May and comes just as many states are beginning to see their eviction protection laws which were put in place for Covid-19 expire.¹
Recently US and EU trade negotiations may have taken a sharp turn for the worse, with the US pulling out of late stage talks over a global tax framework for technology companies, and pursuing further tariffs for European energy companies, among other problems.²
The Federal Reserve has said that a “yield curve control” policy remains an open question for the US. If implemented such a policy would target specific yields for bonds based on maturity date. ³

SOURCES

1. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/16/30percent-of-americans-missed-their-hous…

2. https://www.ft.com/content/1ac26225-c5dc-48fa-84bd-b61e1f4a3d94

3. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/a-buy-everything-rall…

Denver metro Emergency Food Network

At Fidelis Wealth Advisors we recognize all of those who have been impacted by COViD-19 in one way or another. It is important to us as a business as well as individually to be able to give back to the community and to help the less fortunate during turbulent times. We value inclusiveness and strive to help aid our local communities in a time of need. Fidelis has recently donated to the Denver Metro Emergency Food Network that will provide 60 meals to Denver families and elderly. Our hope is to provide relief to those that may be impacted the most.

https://www.denverdelivered.com/

“In the Denver Metro Area, thousands of families, elderly, and individuals of in need and have reduced food security and access to food due to the risk of COVID-19. To address this need the Denver Metro Emergency Food Network was launched to provide safe, free, prepared meals delivered to those in need”.

Weekly Market Snapshot – June 15th, 2020

Created by: Sam Tenney

May inflation data came in at 0.1% growth for the trailing twelve months. Energy continues to weigh on inflation with a -18.9% contraction for the year, however food and medical services both rose sharply higher with 4.0% and 5.9% gains respectively.¹
The United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product shrunk -20.4% in the first quarter, the largest loss on record for the country. The construction industry declined by 43.6%, which took the largest hit.²
Beginning on July 31st, the additional unemployment benefits set aside for Americans during the COVID-19 CARES act, $600 every week, will be discontinued. “The $600 . . . is in effect a disincentive [to return to work]” the White House has said in response to questions regarding whether a new bill will be passed.³