Weekly Market Snapshot – June 28, 2019
Created by: Sam Tenney
This past weekly snapshot the stock market hit record highs again. This is the third time we’ve hit these highs in the past 18 months. As you know, at Fidelis Wealth we are taking a cautious approach to our stock exposure at this time for the following reasons:
- Leading indicators are showing signs of global growth slowing as well as inflation expectations decreasing. ¹
- Trade war impacting global economies, no real end in sight. Current news is a trade truce only, not a trade deal.
- The primary buyers of stocks are companies themselves, with many companies issuing debt to finance these stock buy backs which means their balance sheets are deteriorating. ²
- We are in late stages of this historically long economic cycle. ³
- Long term interest rates have fallen drastically over the past 8 months (related to growth and inflation expectations falling) causing a yield curve inversion (short-term bonds pay a higher interest than long-term bonds). ⁴
- US Stock valuations are high (price of stock is elevated compared to their earnings from a historical perspective). 5
As we list these concerns, we have positioned our clients managed accounts more defensively for the time being.
We recognize that the trade deal could materialize, and the current record economic expansion could continue. The Fed will likely lower rates later this month and again thereafter, which could continue to turbo charge stocks even higher. Earnings of companies are still relatively good albeit down from recent strong results. Given interest rates are falling and the Fed lowering short term rates, high quality stocks with higher yields could hold up at these or higher valuations as an alternative to lower yielding bonds. Although these scenarios could all happen, it is more likely that we will experience higher volatility (which means stock losses in the short-term).
As long-term investors, it is hard to “time the market”, thus we are still invested in the market based on your risk profile. We do feel it is prudent to take a slightly more defensive position currently. We are here to answer any questions and we thank you for your friendship and trust.
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