Lorie, Author at Fidelis Wealth Advisors

By: Jeff Bullock

Money & Investing: Is Today Yesterday?

A while back my five-year-old daughter was in the kitchen eating her breakfast. She looked out the window, and then looked at me, and asked, “Is today yesterday?” What a great question! In a split second my mind raced to figure out how to answer her; I finally looked up and said, “Yes, today is yesterday!”

When it comes to investing money, as with many things in life, today often feels like yesterday, and tomorrow will probably feel like today. It can be easy to get caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations of financial markets and miss the big picture as to why we invest. Here are a few big picture principles that will hopefully make your tomorrow a better today:

Market Cycles Are Real:
- Markets react to economic cycles, meaning there will be up years and down years. Understanding these cycles can help you weather the down years, knowing that long-term investing has historically been a good way to build wealth.
Income – An Important Piece To Most Portfolios:
- I am a big proponent of income-generating investments such as dividend stocks and other alternative income strategies. Some of these investments pay income monthly, which can help mitigate the overall fluctuations of your account. Also, in times when markets bounce around for extended periods, these types of investments allow you to generate a tangible return month-to-month.
Organize Your Money Into Buckets:
- In last month’s newsletter, I wrote about how to better organize your money by using the ‘bucket approach’. While day-to-day fluctuations can sometimes feel like a roller coaster, money that is properly organized maximizes the chances of good decision-making.

While my daughter’s question is a bit of a play on words, there are sound principles we can take from the simple question. Is today yesterday? Most likely, ‘Yes’, but your path for a better tomorrow starts by taking a big picture approach to investing so that your future tomorrows are better than yesterday!

_{This blog is general communication being provided for informational purposes only. This information is in no way a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. It is educational in nature and not to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product or investment strategy. This does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision. Any investment or investment strategy mentioned may not be suitable for all investors or in their best interest. Statistical information, quotes, charts, references to articles or any other quoted statement or statements regarding market or other financial information is obtained from sources which we believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. All rights are reserved. No part of this blog including text, graphics, et al, may be reproduced or copied in any format, electronic, print, et al, without written consent from Fidelis Wealth Advisors, LLC. Fidelis Wealth Advisors does not provide legal or tax advice. Please be advised to consult with your investment advisor, attorney or tax professional before making any investment decisions.}

By: Jeff Bullock

A Bucket Approach For Your Money

During my decade-long tenure at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, I was fortunate enough to interact with many of the industry’s top professionals. One of these great professionals, a former colleague of mine, is Michael Liersch, who at the time was our Global Head of Wealth Planning & Advice. With a Ph.D. in Cognitive Psychology and a knack for wealth management, Michael led the behavioral finance and wealth planning strategy for the bank.

Michael’s research focused on the psychology of money to better understand how and why people make the decisions they do with their money. Michael published a piece a few years ago titled The Bucket List: How to organize your money with intent. In this piece, he lays out a framework for how to use ‘buckets’ to better organize your money. I’ve personally modified his buckets just slightly, but he suggests we should organize our money into four different buckets, as follows:

Liquidity Bucket: Cash reserves and sleep-well-at-night money.
Lifestyle Bucket: How you fund your day-to-day life, such as your paycheck or income from investments.
Growth Bucket: Long-term savings and retirement assets.
Legacy Bucket: Wealth to benefit future generations or philanthropy.

This framework is powerful because once your assets are mentally (and physically) placed in each bucket, the investment discussion becomes ‘bucket specific’, which almost always leads to better decisions. Furthermore, by organizing your wealth into buckets, you can better balance the amount of risk that should be taken with your assets.

Ultimately, an approach like this is intended to give you peace of mind with your money. As Michael wrote, “People across the globe can find it empowering to physically place their money in [these] four buckets…. In this way, they discover whether their money is organized – and utilized – in a way that supports their intentions.”

What is your framework for organizing your money? Could it be more intentional? Could you benefit from a better process?

By: Jeff Bullock

Google the phrase, “quotes on time” and you’ll find everything from funny memes to great philosophy. Time is scarce, relative, puts life in perspective, and is the great equalizer. Most of us wish we had more of it.

The orange and black monarch butterfly has a different concept of time than we do. These beautiful creatures live a full but very short life. In a given twelve month period, a monarch flock can cycle through 3-5 generations. The lifespan of the first few generations born in the summer live only 4-6 weeks. The last generation, born late into the fall, lives much longer, 6-9 months, as they are tasked with migrating to warmer climates and surviving the winter. Year after year, the same process and lifespan continues for these creatures. Their perspective on what constitutes a “long time” is quite different from ours.

Investing money is no different. Time is your friend when it comes to investing. If you believe in innovation, growth, and human ingenuity, then time can perform wonders on a growing investment portfolio. Below are a few principles I use as guidelines for investing related to time:

What is your definition of ‘long term’?: When it comes to public markets investing, having a long investment time horizon is important. Here is how I generally break it down:
- Short Time Frame: 0-3 years
- Medium Time Frame: 3-7 years
- Long Time Frame: 7+ years
How does your time frame affect investment decisions?
- Time frame is one of the most important inputs when building an investment portfolio. Money you need in 12 months will be invested very differently than money you need in 5 years.
When do you need cash for that big purchase?
- Your cash needs will drive a key part of the investment decision-making. This is an ongoing process. Even after an investment portfolio is implemented, we always want to be aware of future cash needs that may require shifts in the portfolio due to the timing of these needs. Communication is key.

If a flock of monarch butterflies asked me to invest their retirement money, my advice would be much different than someone who is decades away from retirement. Keeping a long-term perspective for your money is key, especially during off years like we’re experiencing now.

Despite inevitable volatility that exists in markets, history has shown that investing for the long run has proven to be a worthwhile endeavor for wealth creation.

This blog is general communication being provided for informational purposes only. This information is in no way a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. It is educational in nature and not to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product or investment strategy. This does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision. Any investment or investment strategy mentioned may not be suitable for all investors or in their best interest. Statistical information, quotes, charts, references to articles or any other quoted statement or statements regarding market or other financial information is obtained from sources which we believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. All rights are reserved. No part of this blog including text, graphics, et al, may be reproduced or copied in any format, electronic, print, et al, without written consent from Fidelis Wealth Advisors, LLC. Fidelis Wealth Advisors does not provide legal or tax advice. Please be advised to consult with your investment advisor, attorney or tax professional before making any investment decisions.

By: Jeff Bullock

Over the past 40+ years, we’ve seen many news headlines that would make you want to run for the hills with your investment portfolio. Almost like standing at a fork in the road, being an investor can feel like you’re always deciding between investing or waiting. Here are a few actual headlines we’ve seen the past few decades:

Worst Year for Jobs since 1945

Wall Street’s blackest hours

Stock Market Crash

Where is the Economy Headed?

Fears Trigger Panic Selling

There always seems to be a reason not to invest your money. Wars, supply chain issues, inflation, sovereign debt problems, housing crises, lockdowns, terror, interest rate hikes, recession, etc. Pick the worst headline of the year, in any year, and you would think that the world might be coming to an end.

Despite all the negative headlines that filter through the news cycle, markets and the economy have not only shown resilience, but have proven to be a worthwhile place for wealth creation. This doesn’t mean recessions don’t hurt or slowdowns don’t occur from time to time, but over the long run, economic growth has taken a victory lap over the negative nay-sayers of the world. Markets sometimes overheat and then correct, while other times over-correct and then expand. This is the pattern markets have taken for decades and decades.

With an understanding of this pattern and the proper time commitment, the stock market has proven to be way to participate in economic growth. Markets will always be volatile, remember, this is a feature, not a bug. The key is staying disciplined and investing in a way that allows you to still sleep at night, even during the inevitable pullbacks. Over the last 40 years, the stock market has averaged at least one 14% pullback every year; yet despite this pullback, it has been finished the year positive 75% of the time. Ironically enough, as of the writing of this piece, the stock market is down 13.5% this year. Right on schedule.

There will always be reasons not to invest, and some of them are legitimate, but don’t let the bad headlines scare you away from your long-term goals.

By: Jeff Bullock

The stock market is off to a rough start this year. Geopolitical unrest, supply chain issues, the highest inflation we’ve seen in 40+ years, and elevated market volatility are just a few of the issues markets are dealing with. The equity market is considered forward-looking mechanism, meaning, it is trying to price in future expectations based on information today. The price changes daily because, every day, in theory, there is more clarity regarding expectations and markets promptly adjust. Sometimes you might see that the stock market will increase on bad news or decrease on good news. This happens because it is reacting to a past expectation; perhaps the news wasn’t as bad or as good as previously expected.

With everything that has happened this year, here are a few expectations I have heading into the summer:

Aggressive Fed: The Federal Reserve needs to stomp out inflation. They plan to do this by increasing interest rates much more aggressively than previously expected. One year ago, the market expected the Fed to raise interest rates once in 2022; now the expectations are 8-10 times. This change in expectations has been a primary driver of the market volatility.
Choppy Markets: I expect choppy markets into the summer. Inflation, China’s economy, the war, and supply chains will all print new headlines, undoubtably some good and some bad. The markets will digest the news in real-time and I expect more volatility and choppy markets for the rest of Q2.
Growth Fears: Last week we found out that Q1 GDP was negative. This was highly unexpected, and as such, everyone is on watch since the definition of a recession is when we see two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. I expect recession and stagflation fears to heighten into the summer due to this unexpected negative print.

Our portfolio positioning reflects this current view of the markets. We’ve been tactically overweight value stocks and low duration bonds since last year and continue to hold this positioning, which has been a winning relative trade so far. Our equity position has a focus on income allowing us to be patience since we are being paid to wait if markets go sideways.

By: Jeff Bullock

A few of my brothers and I had a small venture for a number of years in the sports analytics industry. As part of our business, we developed a phone app to help basketball coaches track team statistics. One of my jobs during the development was to test the app over and over. I needed to not only make sure the key features were working properly, but also find any bugs that would be detrimental to the experience, or worse, make the app unusable. The key with any consumer product is to enhance the features and limit the bugs to create a great user experience.

How was the user experience for investors in the stock market the past few months?!

January, February, and March saw some of the biggest swings in recent market history. It wasn’t just that the market drifted down for a period, but we often saw multiple intra-day swings of over 1% in a single trading session. Whether it was the constant barrage of news coming out of Ukraine, or the Federal Reserve turning more hawkish due to runaway inflation, the market reactions were quick and sharp.

Reflecting on my basketball app experience, and looking at the high levels of volatility the stock market sometimes gives, it made me ask the following question:

Is stock market volatility a feature or a bug in the investing experience?

Below are a few key points to explore that may help us answer this question:

Price Discovery: Markets move every day as they digest news and try and figure out how economic growth will affect individual companies. Since every investor has a different thesis on what will happen in the future, prices bounce around based on these outlooks. This natural volatility is called price discovery, and for long-term investors, can provide great buying opportunities. With this understanding, it’s more likely that volatility is a feature, not a bug in the investing experience.
Pullbacks Are Healthy & Normal: The S&P 500, on average, experiences a 10-15% pullback at least once each year. Why? Because markets are always trying to predict future growth and are adjusting to the latest economic news. A pullback is the market’s way of cooling off if prices have risen too fast. What happened in January and February fits this profile exactly. In other words, what we just experienced is normal! Pullbacks are a feature, not a bug in the investing experience.
Zoom Out: Did you know, after all that has happened in this first quarter, the S&P 500 is only down a little over 5% this year? That’s it! Did you know it is up 15% in the last 12 months? Did you know it is up nearly 100% in the last 5 years? Time is your friend with investing. Zoom out, look at the big picture.

Remember, price discovery and pullbacks are healthy and normal. These are features not bugs.

My best advice when experiencing price volatility: Zoom out and embrace it as a feature of long-term investing because it’s not a bug!

By: Jeff Bullock

In Star Wars: Return of the Jedi, one of the great scenes, and oft quoted lines in pop culture occurs when General Ackbar, the Rebel commander, is leading his fleet into battle against The Empire. Shortly into the attack he realizes they miscalculated one aspect of their plan and have unknowingly fallen right into the hands of their foe. It’s at this moment that General Ackbar exclaims, “It’s a trap!”

Many traps exist when you set out to invest your money. One trap, in particular, can be found when choosing an equity dividend strategy. Many investors who want income, while still maintaining equity exposure, turn to dividend strategies to fill this need.

As an investor, we believe you need to be careful, however, to find the right dividend strategy because many of these that look appealing on the surface, may actually have subtle traps under the hood. Below are three approaches to be aware of:

High Dividend Yield but Low Dividend Growth: This approach is the biggest “gotcha”. They look great on the surface with a high dividend yield, but the underlying companies generally have a poor history of growing their dividend at any substantial growth rate. A strategy like this feels good at the outset, but often disappoints over the long run.

Average Dividend Yield and Average Dividend Growth: To use a worn-down cliché, these strategies are a dime-a-dozen. An approach like this will bundle together a bunch of average dividend-paying companies that have an average dividend growth history. The results for the asset class are usually, average.

Above Average Dividend Yield and Above Average Dividend Growth: Welcome to the land of dividend unicorns. These are the highly disciplined strategies that focus on cash-heavy, low debt companies, who have a long history of not only paying dividends (think decades), but also increasing those dividends every year. There is no instant gratification with these strategies, but years down the road they pay off due to their high dividend growth rate. This is where you want to be.

In the epic words of General Ackbar, “It’s a [dividend] trap”! Not all dividend strategies are created equal, but finding the right one, can make all difference years down the road.

Created by: Sam Tenney

Watch our 2022 economic and investment outlook to get our thoughts on the coming year. With the Fed looking to raise interest rates and the economy grappling with inflation, tune in to see how we are positioning portfolios in this environment.

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Created by: Sam Tenney

Despite some of the largest inflation increases in decades, the yield curve on long term bonds has flattened, with the 30-year treasury yield going down to 1.69 as compared to the 20-year bond’s 1.77 yield. This could signal lower growth in the future as the federal reserve reduces quantitative easing.
Goldman Sachs has pushed up its projections for future rate hikes from the federal reserve by a large margin, now expecting the first rate hikes to happen in June of 2022, as compared to once in 2023. This could signal bank economists changing their view on the transitory nature of current inflation.
A recent ransomware attack on the US’s largest cream cheese manufacturer, Schreiber Foods, has led to nationwide shortages of the product and has brought unfulfilled demand to 45-year highs. This attack shows many similarities to supply chain breakdowns during the pipeline attacks earlier this year, showing how many national and global supply chains face similar fragility.